Key Takeaways
- NRF and Happy Returns projected that 19.3% of online sales would be returned in 2025, compared with 15.8% of retail sales overall.
- The same research found that 71% of consumers would be less likely to shop with a retailer again after a poor returns experience.
- In the 2025 NRF study, 76% of consumers were more likely to choose a return option with an instant refund or exchange.
- FedEx found that two-thirds of surveyed consumers considered return policies before buying, while 17% said returns had become more difficult.
- Support staffing must be modeled from a retailer's own contact rate and handling time because published return rates do not measure how many returns become support tickets.
Returns create customer support work before a parcel starts moving and after it reaches a warehouse. Shoppers ask whether an item qualifies, how to print a label, where to drop it off, whether the carrier scanned it, when the retailer received it, and when the refund will arrive. An exchange, damaged item, lost parcel, or fraud review can add more contacts.
The scale is large. The National Retail Federation and Happy Returns projected that 19.3% of online sales would be returned in 2025. Yet that figure is a sales return rate, not a customer service contact rate. No credible industry source says that every return creates one ticket, or that all retailers receive the same number of contacts per return.
This article keeps those measures separate. It summarizes published return and consumer research, then shows how an ecommerce team can convert its own return volume into a defensible workload forecast.
Ecommerce returns workload at a glance
| Statistic | Result | Population and context | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estimated online sales returned | 19.3% | US online sales, 2025 projection | NRF and Happy Returns, October 15, 2025 |
| Estimated retail sales returned overall | 15.8%, or $849.9 billion | US retail, 2025 projection | NRF and Happy Returns, October 15, 2025 |
| Consumers who consider free returns important online | 82% | 2,006 consumers who made an online return in the prior 12 months | NRF and Happy Returns, October 15, 2025 |
| Consumers more likely to choose instant refund or exchange | 76% | Same NRF consumer study | NRF and Happy Returns, October 15, 2025 |
| Consumers less likely to shop again after a poor return | 71% | Same NRF consumer study | NRF and Happy Returns, October 15, 2025 |
| Consumers who consider a return policy before buying | About 67% | 2,200 US consumers | FedEx and Morning Consult, January 28, 2025 |
| Consumers who said returns had become harder | 17% | Same FedEx survey | FedEx and Morning Consult, January 28, 2025 |
| Median customer service representative wage | $21.53 per hour | US occupational wage estimate, May 2025 | US Bureau of Labor Statistics, updated September 2026 |
The rows describe different populations and questions. They should not be combined as if they came from one study. The NRF return rate measures the share of sales returned. The consumer percentages measure preferences and stated future behavior. The wage figure covers US customer service representatives across industries, not ecommerce agents alone.
Return volume sets the upper boundary for support demand
The NRF and Happy Returns surveyed 2,006 consumers who had returned an online purchase during the prior year and 358 ecommerce professionals at large US merchants. Retailers estimated that 15.8% of annual sales would come back in 2025. The online estimate was higher at 19.3%.
That gap matters for support planning. An online shopper cannot walk to a service counter and settle every question in one conversation. The process depends on policy pages, account tools, return merchandise authorization rules, carrier events, warehouse inspection, and payment processing. A missing status at any point can become a ticket.
Return volume still does not equal ticket volume. A clear self-service flow may complete many returns without an agent. Other returns produce several conversations, especially when the item is damaged, the return misses the stated window, tracking stops, or a refund is held for review.
Managers should track two distinct rates:
- Return rate: returned units divided by units sold.
- Return contact rate: support conversations tagged to a return divided by return requests.
A third measure, contacts per contacted return, shows repeat work. Together, those metrics reveal whether the workload comes from product fit, policy friction, poor status visibility, or slow resolution.
Consumer expectations put time pressure on the queue
High return volume is only part of the staffing problem. Shoppers also care about speed and convenience.
The 2025 NRF study found that 76% of consumers were more likely to choose an option that offered an instant refund or exchange. It also found that 82% considered free returns important when shopping online. A poor experience had a stated retention cost: 71% said they would be less likely to shop with that retailer again, and four in five said they would share a negative experience with friends or family.
FedEx and Morning Consult reached a similar conclusion through a separate study. They surveyed 2,200 US consumers and 1,000 US business shippers in December 2024. Two-thirds of consumers considered return policies before purchase, and nearly 30% said the policy directly affected whether they completed a transaction. Although 51% thought returns had improved, 17% said the process had become more difficult.
These figures do not prescribe a universal response-time target. They show why an unresolved return deserves its own service-level view. The customer may have both the item and the payment tied up while waiting. A generic email queue can hide that difference.
Carrier choices can remove or create support steps
Carrier research shows where customer effort enters the process. In a FedEx and Morning Consult study published February 12, 2024, nearly 1,110 US consumers and 500 business shippers compared return methods. Respondents viewed no-label, no-box returns as more convenient, straightforward, easier, and less stressful than conventional return shipping.
The operational point is simple. Each required step can create a failure state. A shopper may lack a printer, use unsuitable packaging, miss a label email, choose the wrong service, or want proof that the carrier accepted the parcel. Removing a label or packaging requirement removes some of those questions, although it does not eliminate refund, exchange, inspection, or policy contacts.
The 2025 Happy Returns report adds a preference ranking. It says 84% of shoppers favored box-free, label-free returns with instant refunds. The UPS Store was a preferred return location for 59%, followed by the US Postal Service at 49% and a retailer's store at 42%. Respondents could prefer more than one location, so these percentages must not be added together.
Channel choice affects the support queue in two ways. More options can prevent contacts from shoppers who cannot use a mail return. Poorly explained options can have the opposite effect. Policy pages, return portals, confirmation messages, and agent scripts need to use the same instructions.
Returns compete with outbound fulfillment for labor
The 2025 Happy Returns report gives a direct operational signal: 60% of surveyed retailers said they had to choose between shipping new orders and processing returns. Another 68% said upgrading return capabilities during the next six months was a top priority.
The NRF report also asked retailers how they expected to manage holiday returns. Forty-nine percent planned to put more emphasis on third-party logistics partners, while 43% planned to hire seasonal returns staff. Those actions concern the wider returns operation, not customer service headcount by itself. Still, they show that returns create a seasonal labor requirement that retailers plan for in advance.
Support teams feel the same peak through policy questions, label problems, status requests, exchanges, and refunds. Warehouse delays can lengthen the support queue even when agent productivity stays constant. Agents cannot confirm an inspection or refund that the operating system has not recorded.
Salesforce's State of Service, Seventh Edition, published in 2025, surveyed 6,500 service professionals globally. It found that representatives spent 46% of an average week working with customers and 54% on administrative tasks, manual case notes, internal meetings, training, and other work. The study covers service teams broadly, so it is not a returns benchmark. It does show why eight hours of paid time should not be modeled as eight hours of customer conversations.
A practical returns support workload model
Published research supplies a credible return-rate baseline, but a staffing estimate needs local operating data. Use this formula:
Monthly return contacts = monthly orders × items per order × item return rate × contact rate per return × contacts per contacted return
Then estimate handling labor:
Monthly handling hours = monthly return contacts × average handle minutes ÷ 60
The example below is a planning scenario, not an industry benchmark.
| Input | Example assumption |
|---|---|
| Monthly orders | 50,000 |
| Average items per order | 1.4 |
| Item return rate | 19.3% |
| Returns that generate at least one support contact | 25% |
| Contacts per contacted return | 1.25 |
| Average handle time | 8 minutes |
The calculation produces 13,510 returned items, about 4,222 support contacts, and about 563 direct handling hours in a month. At 120 productive contact hours per full-time employee per month, the example requires about 4.7 full-time equivalents for direct return contacts.
That last capacity assumption must come from the retailer's own schedules, shrinkage, channel mix, and service targets. It should include paid breaks, meetings, coaching, training, absence, and non-contact work. The Salesforce 46% figure is useful as a warning against unrealistic utilization, not as a substitute for workforce data.
What support labor costs
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that customer service representatives earned a median $21.53 per hour in May 2025. The median for representatives in retail trade was $17.96. These are wages, not fully loaded employer costs. Payroll taxes, benefits, recruiting, supervision, software, facilities, and paid non-contact time sit outside the wage figure.
Using the national median only as a wage reference, the 563 direct hours in the sample model equal about $12,122 in direct wages. This is arithmetic based on the scenario, not a claim about an average retailer. A fully loaded cost model should use the company's actual pay and overhead.
Returns also carry non-support costs. NRF found that, among retailers that charged for returns, 40% cited higher processing costs and 40% cited higher carrier shipping costs. Shopify's returns management guide, published February 21, 2025 and updated for 2026, describes inspection labor, return shipping, restocking, reduced resale value, and tied-up working capital as separate cost components. Support labor should be reported alongside those costs, not used as a proxy for the full cost of a return.
Where return contacts usually originate
Teams should tag contacts by stage instead of using one broad "returns" label.
| Stage | Typical customer question | Operational owner |
|---|---|---|
| Eligibility | Can I return this item, and is there a fee? | Policy and support |
| Authorization | Why was my request denied or sent for review? | Support and risk |
| Label or drop-off | Where is the code, label, or nearest location? | Support and carrier |
| In transit | Why has tracking stopped? | Carrier and support |
| Receipt and inspection | Did the warehouse receive and approve the item? | Warehouse and support |
| Refund | When will the money reach my account? | Payments and support |
| Exchange | When will the replacement ship? | Inventory, fulfillment, and support |
| Exception | What happens to a damaged, wrong, late, or suspected fraudulent return? | Support and specialist teams |
This stage view makes prevention measurable. If label questions dominate, the portal or email may be unclear. If refund contacts rise while warehouse receipts remain stable, payment timing or customer notifications may be the problem. If exchanges require repeated contacts, inventory reservation and order status may not be synchronized.
Metrics worth tracking together
Return rate alone cannot explain support workload. A useful dashboard connects commerce, operations, and service data:
- return requests per 100 orders and returned units per 100 units sold
- support contacts per 100 return requests
- repeat contacts per contacted return
- contact share by stage, reason, channel, and product category
- self-service completion rate
- time from request to carrier acceptance
- time from carrier acceptance to warehouse receipt
- time from receipt to refund or exchange approval
- first-contact resolution and reopen rate for return contacts
- return-related customer satisfaction
- agent handling time and after-contact work
Shopify's 2026 returns guidance recommends tracking return rate, refund processing time, exchange rate, return-to-resale rate, fraud rate, and return reasons by product and channel. Adding contact rate and repeat contact rate connects those operating measures to customer support demand.
How to reduce avoidable return contacts
Self-service works when it answers the same questions an agent would answer. A return portal should show eligibility, fees, available methods, status, and the expected refund or exchange timing. Shopify allows shoppers to submit requests from an order tracking page, which can keep a routine request out of the support queue.
Automation should not hide exceptions. Damaged items, missing parcels, duplicate requests, high-value products, and suspected fraud need a clear path to a person with the necessary order, carrier, and payment context.
Proactive messages are useful at the moments customers otherwise have to ask: request approved, carrier acceptance recorded, warehouse receipt confirmed, inspection completed, and refund initiated. Teams should measure whether each message reduces the matching contact reason.
Retailers that need steady coverage for return authorization, carrier follow-up, inbox triage, and refund-status updates can review an ecommerce virtual assistant. Broader operating guides are available on the Stealth Agents blog, and the full range of staffing options is listed under services.
Research notes and source dates
- NRF, 2025 Retail Returns Landscape, published October 15, 2025. Consumer sample: 2,006 people who returned an online purchase during the prior 12 months. Retailer sample: 358 ecommerce professionals at US merchants with more than $500 million in revenue.
- NRF press release on the 2025 study, published October 15, 2025. This page provides the return estimates and selected consumer and retailer findings.
- Happy Returns, 2025 Retail Returns Landscape, published in 2025. This companion page provides method preferences and retailer operations findings from the joint research.
- FedEx, Second Annual Returns Survey, published January 28, 2025. Morning Consult surveyed 2,200 US consumers and 1,000 US merchants in December 2024, with stated margins of error of plus or minus 2 and 3 percentage points.
- FedEx, no-label and no-box returns survey, published February 12, 2024. Morning Consult surveyed nearly 1,110 US consumers and 500 US business shippers in December 2023.
- Salesforce, State of Service, Seventh Edition, published in 2025. The report covers 6,500 service professionals and is used here only for a broad view of agent time allocation.
- US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Customer Service Representatives, wage data for May 2025, page updated September 2026. Wage estimates cover the occupation across industries.
- Shopify, Ecommerce Returns Management, published February 21, 2025 and updated for 2026. The platform guide is used for workflow definitions, cost categories, and current returns management practices.
The most important limitation is also the most useful finding: published return rates do not reveal a retailer's support contact rate. Teams need consistent return tags, linked order data, and repeat-contact tracking to measure that workload without guessing.
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